AFL · ROUND 16 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans
Thu 25 Jun 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 3
SYD to win, 55% chance
BRI 45%55% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 43
MISS Actual margin 43 · 46.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Morris | CHF | 2.5 | 1.6 to 3.5 | 0.4 to 4.7 | 83% | 59% | 36% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 60% | 38% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 52% | 26% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 58% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 53% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Conor McKenna | FPL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 34% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Draper | RK | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 22% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 36% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Fort | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 26% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | HFFR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 28% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bruce Reville | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Lester | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 2.5 | 1.6 to 3.4 | 0.4 to 4.6 | 83% | 59% | 36% | 20% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPR | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 60% | 38% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 1.6 | 0.8 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 63% | 33% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 60% | 30% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 59% | 24% | 7% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | INT | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 36% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | CHF | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 41% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 42% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Rowbottom | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Peter Ladhams | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 21% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Riley Bice | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Hamling | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| William Edwards | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McCartin | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |