AFL · ROUND 16 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans
Thu 25 Jun 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 3
SYD to win, 55% chance
BRI 45%55% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 43
MISS Actual margin 43 · 46.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Andrews | FB | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.7 | 2.0 to 11.2 | 83% | 71% | 56% | 43% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Ryan Lester | HBFL | 6.6 | 4.5 to 8.6 | 2.0 to 11.1 | 82% | 70% | 55% | 42% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | INT | 6.0 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 78% | 65% | 52% | 39% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | BPR | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 66% | 50% | 35% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | HFFR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 53% | 35% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 57% | 41% | 26% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 53% | 37% | 25% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 45% | 32% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 52% | 36% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 46% | 31% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 50% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Bruce Reville | HBFR | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 51% | 36% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 51% | 36% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPR | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 41% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 42% | 27% | 17% | 10% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 29% | 17% | 10% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 22% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 34% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Fort | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 24% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Conor McKenna | FPL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Draper | RK | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCartin | BPR | 6.0 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.6 to 10.4 | 74% | 61% | 46% | 31% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 72% | 55% | 39% | 29% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 65% | 50% | 34% | 22% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 54% | 40% | 27% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 4.2 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 45% | 30% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 51% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Riley Bice | WL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 54% | 36% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 41% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | CHF | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 48% | 34% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 50% | 31% | 17% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | HBFL | 3.2 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 28% | 16% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 23% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Joel Hamling | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 30% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| William Edwards | FB | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 34% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | FPL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Peter Ladhams | INT | 1.7 | 0.6 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| James Rowbottom | HFFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | INT | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |