AFL · ROUND 16 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v West Coast Eagles
Sat 27 Jun 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 28
CAR to win, 85% chance
CAR 85%15% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 53
HIT Actual margin 53 · 24.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | C | 29.2 | 25.0 to 33.4 | 18.4 to 40.0 | 97% | 90% | 74% | 45% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 33.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | RR | 27.8 | 23.6 to 31.9 | 17.2 to 38.4 | 96% | 88% | 69% | 35% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 31.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 24.3 | 20.4 to 28.2 | 14.3 to 34.3 | 97% | 83% | 53% | 20% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 24.2 | 20.3 to 28.1 | 14.2 to 34.2 | 97% | 83% | 52% | 20% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Nic Newman | INT | 23.0 | 19.2 to 26.8 | 13.2 to 32.8 | 93% | 72% | 39% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 22.0 | 18.3 to 25.8 | 12.4 to 31.7 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Blake Acres | WR | 21.1 | 17.4 to 24.8 | 11.7 to 30.5 | 87% | 60% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 20.9 | 17.2 to 24.6 | 11.5 to 30.3 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 19.3 | 15.7 to 22.8 | 10.2 to 28.3 | 82% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 17.7 | 14.3 to 21.1 | 8.9 to 26.4 | 71% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 17.4 | 14.0 to 20.7 | 8.7 to 26.0 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 16.7 | 13.4 to 20.0 | 8.1 to 25.3 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 16.0 | 12.7 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.4 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 15.3 | 12.1 to 18.5 | 7.0 to 23.6 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | HFFL | 14.5 | 11.4 to 17.7 | 6.4 to 22.6 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 13.6 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.8 to 21.5 | 36% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 12.4 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.6 to 19.7 | 24% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 11.7 | 8.8 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.1 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.6 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 10.5 | 7.7 to 13.2 | 3.4 to 17.6 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 10.4 | 7.6 to 13.1 | 3.3 to 17.4 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.6 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCarthy | INT | 24.4 | 20.5 to 28.3 | 14.4 to 34.5 | 97% | 84% | 54% | 20% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 23.3 | 19.5 to 27.2 | 13.5 to 33.2 | 93% | 74% | 41% | 13% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 20.3 | 16.7 to 24.0 | 11.1 to 29.6 | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 19.6 | 16.0 to 23.1 | 10.4 to 28.7 | 83% | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jack Graham | INT | 17.5 | 14.1 to 20.9 | 8.7 to 26.2 | 69% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 17.5 | 14.1 to 20.9 | 8.8 to 26.3 | 69% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 16.9 | 13.6 to 20.3 | 8.3 to 25.5 | 64% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Ryan Maric | HFFR | 16.9 | 13.6 to 20.3 | 8.3 to 25.5 | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Elijah Hewett | R | 15.5 | 12.3 to 18.7 | 7.2 to 23.8 | 49% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 15.2 | 12.0 to 18.4 | 6.9 to 23.4 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 15.0 | 11.8 to 18.2 | 6.8 to 23.2 | 52% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Marcus Herbert | HBFL | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.1 to 22.0 | 41% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Tom Cole | HFFL | 13.7 | 10.6 to 16.8 | 5.8 to 21.6 | 37% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 13.6 | 10.5 to 16.7 | 5.7 to 21.5 | 36% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 13.3 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 13.1 | 10.0 to 16.1 | 5.3 to 20.8 | 33% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPR | 12.4 | 9.5 to 15.4 | 4.8 to 20.0 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Brady Hough | INT | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jack Hutchinson | INT | 12.1 | 9.1 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 12.0 | 9.1 to 14.9 | 4.5 to 19.5 | 25% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.2 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | FPR | 8.8 | 6.2 to 11.4 | 2.2 to 15.4 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 8.5 | 6.0 to 11.1 | 2.0 to 15.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |