AFL · ROUND 16 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v West Coast Eagles
Sat 27 Jun 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 28
CAR to win, 85% chance
CAR 85%15% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 53
HIT Actual margin 53 · 24.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | C | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 140 | 89% | 78% | 64% | 51% | 34% | inside our 50% range: 106 |
| Patrick Cripps | RR | 94 | 78 to 110 | 54 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 40% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 109 |
| George Hewett | INT | 89 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 69% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Nic Newman | INT | 88 | 72 to 104 | 49 to 127 | 84% | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Blake Acres | WR | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 55% | 37% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 55% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 80 | 65 to 96 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 78 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 72 | 58 to 87 | 35 to 110 | 54% | 38% | 21% | 13% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 112 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 52% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 69 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 67 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Matthew Cottrell | HFFL | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 58 | 44 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 47 | 33 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 85 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCarthy | INT | 92 | 76 to 108 | 53 to 131 | 84% | 71% | 55% | 37% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 84 | 68 to 99 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 82 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 57% | 37% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 79 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 117 | 70% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 60% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Jack Graham | INT | 72 | 57 to 86 | 35 to 109 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Ryan Maric | HFFR | 67 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Elijah Hewett | R | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Tom Cole | HFFL | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 93 | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Marcus Herbert | HBFL | 57 | 42 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Jack Hutchinson | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPR | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Brady Hough | INT | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | FPR | 47 | 33 to 60 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 45 | 32 to 59 | 11 to 79 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |