AFL · ROUND 16 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v West Coast Eagles
Sat 27 Jun 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 28
CAR to win, 85% chance
CAR 85%15% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 53
HIT Actual margin 53 · 24.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry McKay | FF | 1.8 | 1.1 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 66% | 44% | 23% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 71% | 40% | 18% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 54% | 26% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 1.2 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 44% | 20% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 51% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 27% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 34% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 38% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 21% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | RR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 26% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Walsh | C | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Blake Acres | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 26% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 28% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nic Newman | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Waterman | FF | 2.3 | 1.5 to 3.2 | 0.3 to 4.4 | 81% | 58% | 34% | 16% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 54% | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 33% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 21% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 39% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | FPR | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 28% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Hutchinson | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Cole | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brady Hough | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Graham | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 16% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 17% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Maric | HFFR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Elijah Hewett | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Marcus Herbert | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |