AFL · ROUND 16 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v West Coast Eagles
Sat 27 Jun 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 28
CAR to win, 85% chance
CAR 85%15% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 53
HIT Actual margin 53 · 24.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nic Newman | INT | 6.9 | 4.8 to 9.0 | 2.2 to 11.6 | 84% | 72% | 59% | 46% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.4 | 1.9 to 11.0 | 81% | 69% | 54% | 40% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.2 | 1.8 to 10.7 | 78% | 66% | 51% | 36% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.1 | 75% | 62% | 48% | 36% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Blake Acres | WR | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.8 | 68% | 56% | 42% | 29% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.1 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 63% | 46% | 33% | 22% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 0.9 to 8.9 | 59% | 42% | 30% | 17% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 65% | 50% | 34% | 23% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 59% | 43% | 30% | 17% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WL | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 32% | 21% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 53% | 36% | 22% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 53% | 37% | 25% | 15% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 48% | 35% | 24% | 13% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 47% | 31% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 48% | 32% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Walsh | C | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | HFFL | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 10% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ison | INT | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 42% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | RR | 3.2 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 28% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jagga Smith | R | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 25% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 23% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Waterman | FF | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.5 | 1.9 to 11.0 | 82% | 69% | 55% | 41% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.4 | 1.9 to 10.9 | 80% | 69% | 54% | 40% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 6.1 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.6 to 10.5 | 76% | 61% | 48% | 33% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | INT | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 77% | 65% | 51% | 38% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 66% | 50% | 35% | 23% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Cole | HFFL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 54% | 38% | 24% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 55% | 40% | 28% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ryan Maric | HFFR | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 53% | 37% | 24% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Brady Hough | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 46% | 31% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 46% | 31% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Hutchinson | INT | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 51% | 36% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 50% | 34% | 23% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 43% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 34% | 22% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 30% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 37% | 23% | 13% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Elijah Hewett | R | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 32% | 18% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Marcus Herbert | HBFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 18% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | FPR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 19% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Graham | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |