AFL · ROUND 16 · MCG
Collingwood v Richmond
Sat 27 Jun 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 44
COL to win, 94% chance
COL 94%6% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 34
HIT Actual margin 34 · 10.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | R | 33.1 | 28.6 to 37.5 | 21.7 to 44.5 | 100% | 97% | 88% | 67% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 37.0 |
| Josh Daicos | HBFR | 27.3 | 23.2 to 31.4 | 16.8 to 37.8 | 96% | 87% | 65% | 31% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 25.7 | 21.7 to 29.7 | 15.5 to 36.0 | 98% | 88% | 62% | 29% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | CHF | 22.3 | 18.5 to 26.0 | 12.6 to 31.9 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | RR | 22.0 | 18.2 to 25.7 | 12.4 to 31.6 | 90% | 67% | 33% | 8% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 21.8 | 18.1 to 25.5 | 12.2 to 31.3 | 90% | 64% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Dan Houston | CHB | 21.3 | 17.6 to 25.0 | 11.9 to 30.8 | 88% | 62% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 19.2 | 15.7 to 22.7 | 10.1 to 28.3 | 82% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 18.9 | 15.4 to 22.4 | 9.9 to 27.9 | 76% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WL | 18.9 | 15.4 to 22.4 | 9.9 to 27.9 | 76% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Harry Perryman | BPL | 18.3 | 14.9 to 21.8 | 9.4 to 27.2 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 18.0 | 14.6 to 21.5 | 9.2 to 26.9 | 72% | 29% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Ned Long | C | 17.9 | 14.4 to 21.3 | 9.1 to 26.7 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 17.6 | 14.1 to 21.0 | 8.8 to 26.3 | 70% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Roan Steele | WR | 16.0 | 12.7 to 19.2 | 7.6 to 24.4 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 15.7 | 12.5 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.1 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFL | 14.9 | 11.8 to 18.1 | 6.8 to 23.1 | 52% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Sam Swadling | INT | 13.7 | 10.6 to 16.8 | 5.8 to 21.6 | 37% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPR | 13.2 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.4 to 21.0 | 35% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FF | 11.3 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 4.0 to 18.5 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | INT | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.6 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 10.5 | 7.8 to 13.3 | 3.4 to 17.6 | 14% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jack Buller | FPR | 9.6 | 7.0 to 12.3 | 2.8 to 16.5 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short | CHB | 25.4 | 21.4 to 29.4 | 15.2 to 35.6 | 98% | 87% | 59% | 25% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 24.5 | 20.6 to 28.5 | 14.5 to 34.6 | 97% | 84% | 55% | 21% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Jack Ross | R | 24.0 | 20.1 to 27.9 | 14.0 to 33.9 | 97% | 82% | 51% | 19% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Dion Prestia | RR | 23.0 | 19.2 to 26.8 | 13.2 to 32.8 | 93% | 72% | 39% | 13% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFR | 22.8 | 19.0 to 26.6 | 13.1 to 32.6 | 92% | 71% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Tom Brown | BPR | 18.3 | 14.8 to 21.8 | 9.4 to 27.2 | 73% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| James Trezise | WR | 17.6 | 14.1 to 21.0 | 8.8 to 26.3 | 70% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 16.9 | 13.5 to 20.2 | 8.3 to 25.5 | 66% | 27% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 16.7 | 13.4 to 20.0 | 8.1 to 25.3 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 15.9 | 12.6 to 19.2 | 7.5 to 24.3 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 15.4 | 12.2 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.7 | 48% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 15.0 | 11.8 to 18.2 | 6.8 to 23.2 | 53% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Sam Cumming | INT | 14.7 | 11.6 to 17.9 | 6.6 to 22.9 | 49% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 14.2 | 11.0 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 13.7 | 10.6 to 16.8 | 5.8 to 21.6 | 37% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Noah Balta | FPL | 13.0 | 10.0 to 16.0 | 5.3 to 20.7 | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Rhyan Mansell | INT | 12.3 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Kye Annand | INT | 12.2 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.7 to 19.7 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 11.4 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Taj Hotton | INT | 10.7 | 8.0 to 13.5 | 3.6 to 17.9 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | HFFL | 9.7 | 7.0 to 12.4 | 2.8 to 16.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jasper Alger | FF | 9.0 | 6.4 to 11.7 | 2.3 to 15.7 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 8.5 | 6.0 to 11.1 | 2.0 to 15.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |