AFL · ROUND 16 · MCG
Collingwood v Richmond
Sat 27 Jun 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 44
COL to win, 94% chance
COL 94%6% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 34
HIT Actual margin 34 · 10.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | R | 113 | 96 to 129 | 72 to 154 | 96% | 90% | 81% | 67% | 56% | inside our 90% range: 143 |
| Josh Daicos | HBFR | 95 | 79 to 111 | 55 to 134 | 87% | 76% | 60% | 42% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 120 |
| Jordan De Goey | CHF | 88 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 48% | 30% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 103 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 42% | 27% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 82 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 57% | 38% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 81 | 66 to 97 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 55% | 38% | 23% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 111 |
| Dan Houston | CHB | 80 | 65 to 96 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 120 |
| Patrick Lipinski | RR | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 68% | 50% | 34% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Ned Long | C | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 25% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WL | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Harry Perryman | BPL | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFL | 63 | 48 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Roan Steele | WR | 62 | 48 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 32% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Tim Membrey | FF | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Sam Swadling | INT | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Billy Frampton | BPR | 54 | 40 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Jack Buller | FPR | 51 | 37 to 65 | 17 to 86 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Harvey Harrison | INT | 49 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 83 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short | CHB | 95 | 80 to 111 | 56 to 135 | 88% | 76% | 61% | 44% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 91 | 75 to 106 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 72% | 55% | 37% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 105 |
| Jack Ross | R | 88 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 48% | 30% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Sam Banks | HBFR | 84 | 68 to 99 | 45 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 75% | 55% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Dion Prestia | RR | 81 | 65 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 70% | 54% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| James Trezise | WR | 72 | 57 to 86 | 35 to 109 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Tom Brown | BPR | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 69 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 67 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Noah Balta | FPL | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Rhyan Mansell | INT | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 28% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 99 |
| Sam Cumming | INT | 58 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 93 | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 53 | 39 to 67 | 19 to 88 | 21% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Kye Annand | INT | 51 | 37 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Taj Hotton | INT | 49 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 83 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Maurice Rioli | HFFL | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Jasper Alger | FF | 46 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 79 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |