AFL · ROUND 16 · MCG
Collingwood v Richmond
Sat 27 Jun 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 44
COL to win, 94% chance
COL 94%6% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 34
HIT Actual margin 34 · 10.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Membrey | FF | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 63% | 40% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 1.6 | 0.8 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 63% | 33% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | CHF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 56% | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Buller | FPR | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 62% | 32% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 62% | 32% | 12% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Nick Daicos | R | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Roan Steele | WR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 35% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 32% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Long | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Swadling | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 13% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Daicos | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dan Houston | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Perryman | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasper Alger | FF | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 50% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 51% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rhyan Mansell | INT | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Noah Balta | FPL | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 26% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 30% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 42% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 28% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ross | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kye Annand | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 21% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Cumming | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dion Prestia | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Trezise | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Taj Hotton | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Brown | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |