AFL · ROUND 16 · MCG
Collingwood v Richmond
Sat 27 Jun 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 44
COL to win, 94% chance
COL 94%6% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 34
HIT Actual margin 34 · 10.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.2 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 78% | 65% | 50% | 36% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 6.0 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.6 to 10.4 | 76% | 61% | 48% | 33% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Josh Daicos | HBFR | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 77% | 64% | 50% | 38% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPR | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 70% | 58% | 44% | 30% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Dan Houston | CHB | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 70% | 58% | 44% | 31% | 21% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | CHF | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 60% | 43% | 31% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WL | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 0.9 to 8.9 | 59% | 43% | 30% | 17% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Harry Perryman | BPL | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 32% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 53% | 38% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 58% | 41% | 28% | 18% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FF | 4.7 | 2.9 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 61% | 43% | 26% | 17% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 51% | 31% | 20% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | RR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 52% | 33% | 21% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Nick Daicos | R | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.2 | 55% | 41% | 28% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 54% | 40% | 27% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Buller | FPR | 4.2 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 45% | 30% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 43% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ned Long | C | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 31% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Roan Steele | WR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 41% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Swadling | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 23% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 19% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Miller | FB | 6.8 | 4.7 to 8.8 | 2.1 to 11.4 | 84% | 72% | 58% | 44% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.6 | 2.0 to 11.1 | 82% | 70% | 55% | 41% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 69% | 52% | 36% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Tom Brown | BPR | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 70% | 52% | 36% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFR | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 65% | 50% | 34% | 22% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 58% | 41% | 28% | 18% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| James Trezise | WR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 60% | 44% | 31% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Noah Balta | FPL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 58% | 43% | 29% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Dion Prestia | RR | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 40% | 26% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Rhyan Mansell | INT | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 43% | 30% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Ross | R | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 38% | 26% | 16% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 50% | 31% | 17% | 11% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 37% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 3.6 | 2.0 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 43% | 27% | 17% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 36% | 23% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jasper Alger | FF | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kye Annand | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Cumming | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 2.8 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Taj Hotton | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 20% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.8 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |