AFL · ROUND 16 · MCG
Collingwood v Richmond
Sat 27 Jun 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 44
COL to win, 94% chance
COL 94%6% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 34
HIT Actual margin 34 · 10.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ned Long | C | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 64% | 47% | 33% | 23% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 60% | 42% | 28% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 65% | 49% | 28% | 16% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 62% | 42% | 25% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 57% | 36% | 21% | 14% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Nick Daicos | R | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 42% | 26% | 15% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 40% | 24% | 14% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | CHF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 36% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 32% | 17% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | RR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 29% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dan Houston | CHB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Daicos | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Swadling | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Perryman | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 23% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Roan Steele | WR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Buller | FPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Ross | R | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.9 | 76% | 61% | 44% | 30% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 68% | 50% | 36% | 24% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.5 to 7.2 | 64% | 47% | 27% | 15% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Dion Prestia | RR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | HFFL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 44% | 28% | 17% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rhyan Mansell | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 44% | 26% | 13% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Cumming | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| James Trezise | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 35% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Taj Hotton | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 34% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kye Annand | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 23% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jasper Alger | FF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 19% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Balta | FPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 19% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Brown | BPR | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |