AFL · ROUND 16 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Gold Coast SUNS
Sun 28 Jun 2026, 3:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 29
FRE to win, 86% chance
FRE 86%14% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 51
HIT Actual margin 51 · 22.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 26.6 | 22.5 to 30.6 | 16.2 to 37.0 | 95% | 85% | 61% | 25% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 24.5 | 20.6 to 28.4 | 14.4 to 34.5 | 97% | 84% | 54% | 21% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 23.4 | 19.6 to 27.3 | 13.6 to 33.3 | 94% | 75% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 23.3 | 19.4 to 27.1 | 13.5 to 33.1 | 93% | 74% | 41% | 13% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 21.7 | 18.0 to 25.4 | 12.1 to 31.2 | 89% | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 21.3 | 17.6 to 25.0 | 11.8 to 30.8 | 88% | 62% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 19.6 | 16.1 to 23.2 | 10.5 to 28.8 | 83% | 51% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 19.4 | 15.8 to 22.9 | 10.3 to 28.4 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 18.7 | 15.2 to 22.2 | 9.7 to 27.7 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WR | 18.5 | 15.0 to 21.9 | 9.5 to 27.4 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WL | 17.9 | 14.5 to 21.3 | 9.1 to 26.7 | 72% | 35% | 11% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | INT | 17.2 | 13.8 to 20.6 | 8.5 to 25.9 | 67% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 15.5 | 12.3 to 18.8 | 7.2 to 23.8 | 50% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 14.7 | 11.5 to 17.8 | 6.5 to 22.8 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 12.5 | 9.5 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Michael Frederick | CHF | 12.0 | 9.1 to 14.9 | 4.5 to 19.5 | 25% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 10.9 | 8.1 to 13.8 | 3.7 to 18.2 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 10.3 | 7.5 to 13.0 | 3.2 to 17.3 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 9.8 | 7.1 to 12.4 | 2.9 to 16.7 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 9.8 | 7.1 to 12.4 | 2.9 to 16.7 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Sean Darcy | INT | 9.5 | 6.9 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.4 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | RR | 28.9 | 24.7 to 33.1 | 18.1 to 39.6 | 97% | 89% | 73% | 42% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 33.0 |
| John Noble | WL | 26.6 | 22.6 to 30.7 | 16.2 to 37.0 | 95% | 86% | 62% | 26% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 24.7 | 20.8 to 28.7 | 14.7 to 34.8 | 97% | 85% | 55% | 22% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Christian Petracca | HFFR | 24.0 | 20.1 to 27.9 | 14.1 to 34.0 | 97% | 82% | 52% | 19% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Touk Miller | CHF | 22.8 | 19.0 to 26.6 | 13.0 to 32.5 | 92% | 71% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 22.6 | 18.8 to 26.4 | 12.9 to 32.3 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | HBFL | 21.1 | 17.4 to 24.7 | 11.6 to 30.5 | 87% | 60% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Wil Powell | HBFR | 17.8 | 14.4 to 21.3 | 9.0 to 26.6 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 17.0 | 13.6 to 20.3 | 8.4 to 25.6 | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Jai Murray | WR | 14.4 | 11.3 to 17.6 | 6.4 to 22.5 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Beau Addinsall | C | 13.9 | 10.8 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.8 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | INT | 13.6 | 10.5 to 16.6 | 5.7 to 21.4 | 35% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFL | 12.0 | 9.1 to 14.9 | 4.5 to 19.5 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | CHB | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.2 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Ben Jepson | INT | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.6 to 17.9 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Ben Long | FF | 10.6 | 7.9 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | INT | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.6 | 2.9 to 16.8 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | INT | 9.7 | 7.0 to 12.4 | 2.8 to 16.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 9.4 | 6.7 to 12.0 | 2.6 to 16.1 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Nick Holman | INT | 9.3 | 6.7 to 11.9 | 2.5 to 16.1 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jed Walter | FPR | 8.0 | 5.5 to 10.5 | 1.6 to 14.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Ben King | FPL | 7.8 | 5.3 to 10.2 | 1.5 to 14.1 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |