AFL · ROUND 16 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Gold Coast SUNS
Sun 28 Jun 2026, 3:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 29
FRE to win, 86% chance
FRE 86%14% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 51
HIT Actual margin 51 · 22.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Jackson | RK | 100 | 84 to 117 | 61 to 140 | 89% | 80% | 66% | 52% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 97 | 81 to 113 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 64% | 46% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 131 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 88 | 72 to 104 | 49 to 127 | 84% | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 44% | 28% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 102 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 78% | 59% | 39% | 23% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 55% | 37% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 78 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 76 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Neil Erasmus | WR | 74 | 59 to 89 | 36 to 111 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 39% | 23% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WL | 67 | 52 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Matthew Johnson | INT | 66 | 51 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 66 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 61 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 97 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 61 | 47 to 76 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 59 | 45 to 73 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Michael Frederick | CHF | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Sean Darcy | INT | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 52 | 38 to 65 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 47 | 33 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 44 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | RR | 103 | 87 to 119 | 63 to 144 | 91% | 83% | 68% | 57% | 39% | inside our 90% range: 120 |
| John Noble | WL | 97 | 81 to 112 | 57 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 46% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 93 | 77 to 108 | 53 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 56% | 38% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Christian Petracca | HFFR | 85 | 70 to 100 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 63% | 41% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 72% | 56% | 38% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Touk Miller | CHF | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 55% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Joel Jeffrey | HBFL | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Wil Powell | HBFR | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 65 | 50 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 36% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 58 | 44 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Beau Addinsall | C | 57 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Ben Long | FF | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Jai Murray | WR | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Jarrod Witts | INT | 56 | 42 to 70 | 20 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFL | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Leonardo Lombard | INT | 51 | 37 to 65 | 17 to 86 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Zeke Uwland | CHB | 50 | 36 to 64 | 15 to 84 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 86 |
| Jed Walter | FPR | 48 | 34 to 61 | 13 to 82 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Ben King | FPL | 47 | 33 to 60 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Ben Jepson | INT | 42 | 29 to 56 | 9 to 76 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Charlie Ballard | INT | 42 | 28 to 55 | 9 to 75 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14 |
| Nick Holman | INT | 40 | 27 to 54 | 7 to 74 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |