AFL · ROUND 16 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Gold Coast SUNS
Sun 28 Jun 2026, 3:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 29
FRE to win, 86% chance
FRE 86%14% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 51
HIT Actual margin 51 · 22.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jye Amiss | FF | 2.5 | 1.6 to 3.4 | 0.3 to 4.6 | 82% | 59% | 36% | 19% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 2.3 | 1.5 to 3.2 | 0.3 to 4.4 | 81% | 58% | 35% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 2.2 | 1.4 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.2 | 78% | 54% | 33% | 15% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Michael Frederick | CHF | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 44% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 37% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 29% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 29% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 23% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 17% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sean Darcy | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben King | FPL | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.8 | 0.1 to 3.9 | 72% | 49% | 28% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Long | FF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 63% | 34% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jed Walter | FPR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 59% | 30% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 36% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Christian Petracca | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 35% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Touk Miller | CHF | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Beau Addinsall | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 24% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 27% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Jepson | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Murray | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| John Noble | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Holman | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 29% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | CHB | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 19% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wil Powell | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |