AFL · ROUND 16 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Gold Coast SUNS
Sun 28 Jun 2026, 3:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 29
FRE to win, 86% chance
FRE 86%14% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 51
HIT Actual margin 51 · 22.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.4 | 1.6 to 9.6 | 82% | 71% | 58% | 46% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 1.0 to 8.4 | 70% | 54% | 39% | 26% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 66% | 49% | 34% | 23% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 56% | 38% | 22% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 57% | 36% | 20% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 57% | 36% | 21% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 40% | 22% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 36% | 22% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 33% | 19% | 9% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sean Darcy | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 22% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Michael Frederick | CHF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 21% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 27% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 17% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Rowell | R | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.1 | 2.0 to 10.4 | 88% | 77% | 65% | 53% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 60% | 42% | 28% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Touk Miller | CHF | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 62% | 41% | 24% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Christian Petracca | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 47% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Beau Addinsall | C | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 27% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 29% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Wil Powell | HBFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 39% | 23% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Holman | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Jepson | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 21% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jai Murray | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| John Noble | WL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | CHB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Long | FF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jed Walter | FPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben King | FPL | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |