AFL · ROUND 16 · MCG
Hawthorn v GWS GIANTS
Fri 26 Jun 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 6
HAW to win, 59% chance
HAW 59%41% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 8.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 27.7 | 23.5 to 31.8 | 17.1 to 38.2 | 96% | 88% | 68% | 34% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 31.0 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 24.4 | 20.5 to 28.3 | 14.4 to 34.4 | 97% | 84% | 54% | 20% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 23.1 | 19.3 to 27.0 | 13.3 to 32.9 | 93% | 72% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 21.3 | 17.6 to 25.0 | 11.8 to 30.8 | 88% | 62% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Will Day | C | 21.3 | 17.6 to 25.0 | 11.8 to 30.8 | 88% | 62% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 21.2 | 17.5 to 24.9 | 11.7 to 30.6 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 20.4 | 16.8 to 24.0 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 20.0 | 16.4 to 23.6 | 10.8 to 29.2 | 84% | 53% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 20.0 | 16.4 to 23.6 | 10.8 to 29.3 | 85% | 54% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 19.6 | 16.0 to 23.1 | 10.4 to 28.7 | 83% | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Harry Morrison | WR | 17.7 | 14.3 to 21.1 | 8.9 to 26.5 | 71% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 17.3 | 13.9 to 20.7 | 8.6 to 26.0 | 67% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | FPL | 15.0 | 11.8 to 18.2 | 6.8 to 23.2 | 52% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 13.2 | 10.2 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 21.0 | 35% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Flynn Perez | BPR | 12.3 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.8 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | HBFR | 11.5 | 8.7 to 14.4 | 4.2 to 18.9 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jack Dalton | INT | 11.4 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 10.9 | 8.1 to 13.7 | 3.7 to 18.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 9.3 | 6.6 to 11.9 | 2.5 to 16.0 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Tom Barrass | CHB | 9.2 | 6.5 to 11.8 | 2.4 to 15.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 8.4 | 5.9 to 11.0 | 1.9 to 14.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Calsher Dear | INT | 8.3 | 5.8 to 10.9 | 1.8 to 14.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 30.1 | 25.8 to 34.4 | 19.1 to 41.1 | 98% | 91% | 79% | 52% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 34.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFL | 28.5 | 24.3 to 32.7 | 17.8 to 39.2 | 97% | 89% | 72% | 39% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 28.1 | 24.0 to 32.3 | 17.5 to 38.8 | 96% | 89% | 70% | 37% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 27.8 | 23.6 to 31.9 | 17.2 to 38.4 | 96% | 88% | 69% | 35% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 20.4 | 16.8 to 24.0 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 56% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Brent Daniels | RR | 20.2 | 16.5 to 23.8 | 10.9 to 29.4 | 83% | 53% | 20% | 5% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 19.2 | 15.7 to 22.7 | 10.1 to 28.3 | 82% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 17.6 | 14.2 to 21.0 | 8.9 to 26.3 | 70% | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Toby Greene | FPR | 17.3 | 14.0 to 20.7 | 8.7 to 26.0 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | BPR | 17.0 | 13.7 to 20.4 | 8.4 to 25.7 | 65% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 16.4 | 13.1 to 19.7 | 7.9 to 24.9 | 63% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 16.0 | 12.7 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.4 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Toby Bedford | HFFR | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.0 to 21.9 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFL | 13.2 | 10.2 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 21.0 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Conor Stone | INT | 13.1 | 10.1 to 16.1 | 5.3 to 20.9 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.9 | 4.5 to 19.4 | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 11.2 | 8.4 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.5 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.3 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 10.4 | 7.7 to 13.2 | 3.3 to 17.5 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 10.3 | 7.6 to 13.1 | 3.3 to 17.3 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Harrison Oliver | INT | 10.3 | 7.6 to 13.1 | 3.3 to 17.4 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 9.6 | 7.0 to 12.3 | 2.8 to 16.5 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | CHF | 9.1 | 6.5 to 11.7 | 2.4 to 15.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |