AFL · ROUND 16 · MCG
Hawthorn v GWS GIANTS
Fri 26 Jun 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 6
HAW to win, 59% chance
HAW 59%41% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 8.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 92 | 77 to 108 | 53 to 132 | 85% | 72% | 56% | 38% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 103 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 92 | 76 to 108 | 53 to 131 | 82% | 69% | 53% | 37% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Will Day | C | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 42% | 28% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 83 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 121 | 77% | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 80 | 65 to 96 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 117 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 34% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 116 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 66% | 48% | 32% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 112 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 72 | 57 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 52% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 71 | 57 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 52% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Harry Morrison | WR | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Blake Hardwick | FPL | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 105 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 58 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 58 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 88 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Flynn Perez | BPR | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 84 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Calsher Dear | INT | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Jack Dalton | INT | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Bailey Macdonald | HBFR | 47 | 34 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Tom Barrass | CHB | 44 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 53% | 36% | inside our 90% range: 129 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFL | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 89% | 80% | 66% | 52% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 99 | 83 to 115 | 60 to 139 | 88% | 77% | 64% | 51% | 33% | inside our 90% range: 121 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 138 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 48% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Brent Daniels | RR | 80 | 65 to 96 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 28 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Toby Greene | FPR | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 114 | 58% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Harry Himmelberg | BPR | 67 | 52 to 82 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Toby Bedford | HFFR | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 31% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 61 | 47 to 76 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 60 | 46 to 75 | 24 to 96 | 28% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFL | 58 | 44 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Conor Stone | INT | 51 | 37 to 65 | 17 to 86 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Max Gruzewski | CHF | 48 | 34 to 61 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 48 | 34 to 61 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Harrison Oliver | INT | 46 | 32 to 60 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |