AFL · ROUND 16 · MCG
Hawthorn v GWS GIANTS
Fri 26 Jun 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 6
HAW to win, 59% chance
HAW 59%41% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 8.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Watson | FPR | 2.1 | 1.3 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.1 | 76% | 53% | 30% | 15% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 62% | 39% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 1.6 | 0.8 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 62% | 32% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 44% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | FPL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Calsher Dear | INT | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 49% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 34% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 37% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Will Day | C | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 21% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Dalton | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Morrison | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 22% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Flynn Perez | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Barrass | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.8 | 0.1 to 3.9 | 72% | 49% | 28% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 66% | 41% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Toby Greene | FPR | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 71% | 40% | 18% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | CHF | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 47% | 22% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 47% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Toby Bedford | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brent Daniels | RR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 40% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Conor Stone | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harrison Oliver | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 17% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |