AFL · ROUND 16 · MCG
Hawthorn v GWS GIANTS
Fri 26 Jun 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 6
HAW to win, 59% chance
HAW 59%41% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 8.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 27.7 / inside our 50% range: 31.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 92 / inside our 50% range: 103 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 24.4 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 92 / inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 23.1 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 80 / inside our 90% range: 54 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 21.3 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.8 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 83 / inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Will Day | C | 21.3 / inside our 90% range: 27.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 5.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 86 / inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 21.2 / inside our 90% range: 27.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 76 / inside our 90% range: 112 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 20.4 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 80 / inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 20.0 / inside our 90% range: 25.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 78 / inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 20.0 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.4 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 75 / inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 19.6 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.8 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 79 / inside our 90% range: 116 |
| Harry Morrison | WR | 17.7 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 69 / inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 17.3 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 72 / inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Blake Hardwick | FPL | 15.0 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.8 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 69 / inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 13.2 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 62 / inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Flynn Perez | BPR | 12.3 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 50 / inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 11.9 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 71 / inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Bailey Macdonald | HBFR | 11.5 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 47 / inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Jack Dalton | INT | 11.4 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.4 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.3 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 48 / inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 10.9 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 58 / inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 9.3 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 58 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Tom Barrass | CHB | 9.2 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 44 / inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 8.4 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Calsher Dear | INT | 8.3 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 49 / inside our 50% range: 45 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 30.1 / inside our 50% range: 34.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 5.1 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 101 / inside our 90% range: 129 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFL | 28.5 / inside our 50% range: 28.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 6.4 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 101 / inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 28.1 / inside our 90% range: 34.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 99 / inside our 90% range: 121 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 27.8 / inside our 90% range: 33.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.0 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 98 / inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 20.4 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.4 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 77 / inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Brent Daniels | RR | 20.2 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 80 / outside our 90% range: 28 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 19.2 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 76 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 17.6 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.8 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 70 / inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Toby Greene | FPR | 17.3 / inside our 90% range: 24.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 76 / inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Harry Himmelberg | BPR | 17.0 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.9 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 67 / inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 16.4 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 16.0 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 62 / inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Toby Bedford | HFFR | 14.0 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 62 / inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFL | 13.2 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 58 / inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Conor Stone | INT | 13.1 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 51 / inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 11.9 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 78 / inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 11.2 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 60 / inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 11.0 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.3 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 48 / inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 10.4 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.7 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 50 / inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 10.3 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Harrison Oliver | INT | 10.3 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 46 / inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Leek Aleer | INT | 9.6 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 48 / inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Max Gruzewski | CHF | 9.1 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 48 / inside our 50% range: 34 |