AFL · ROUND 16 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Essendon
Sun 28 Jun 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 17
NM to win, 74% chance
NM 74%26% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 2.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 31.3 / outside our 90% range: 43.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.8 / outside our 90% range: 12.0 | 4.2 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 113 / outside our 90% range: 173 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 26.9 / outside our 90% range: 40.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.0 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 98 / outside our 90% range: 139 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 25.8 / inside our 50% range: 25.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.4 / outside our 90% range: 11.0 | 95 / inside our 90% range: 118 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 25.8 / inside our 90% range: 31.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.6 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 97 / inside our 50% range: 110 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 23.1 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.0 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 88 / inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 22.0 / inside our 50% range: 25.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 79 / inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HFFL | 20.7 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 82 / inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 20.0 / inside our 90% range: 24.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 77 / inside our 50% range: 81 |
| George Wardlaw | RR | 19.7 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 5.3 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 79 / inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Tom Blamires | HBFL | 18.4 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 16.2 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.3 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 72 / inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 15.3 / outside our 90% range: 24.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 62 / inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Josh Goater | INT | 15.2 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 13.7 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Charlie Spargo | INT | 13.7 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.7 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Jacob Konstanty | HFFR | 13.0 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 59 / inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 12.5 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.4 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 1.1 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 55 / inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Jack Darling | CHF | 12.1 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 65 / inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Callum Coleman-Jones | INT | 11.0 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 55 / inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 10.8 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.8 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 65 / inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Cooper Trembath | RK | 10.0 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.4 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 63 / inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Zane Duursma | FPR | 9.5 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 50 / inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Wil Dawson | INT | 8.3 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 42 / inside our 50% range: 48 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 28.5 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 110 / inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Darcy Parish | INT | 26.1 / inside our 50% range: 25.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.0 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 87 / inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Will Setterfield | R | 24.1 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 5.3 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 95 / inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Sam Durham | C | 22.2 / inside our 50% range: 25.0 | 0.4 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 85 / inside our 90% range: 108 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 21.8 / inside our 90% range: 29.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.2 / outside our 90% range: 12.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 82 / inside our 90% range: 118 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 19.0 / inside our 90% range: 26.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 70 / inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFR | 17.9 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 72 / inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Xavier Duursma | HBFL | 17.7 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.4 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 71 / inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Jordan Ridley | CHB | 17.4 / inside our 90% range: 23.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.3 / outside our 90% range: 12.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 69 / inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 17.1 / outside our 90% range: 26.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.7 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 65 / inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 17.1 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.4 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Sullivan Robey | FPL | 15.4 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 3.5 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 63 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Archie Perkins | WL | 15.3 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 15.3 / inside our 90% range: 21.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 12.9 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.9 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Isaac Kako | INT | 12.3 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 53 / inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 11.4 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 65 / inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 11.1 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 50 / inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 10.1 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 61 / inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Ben McKay | FF | 9.7 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 5.1 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Harrison Jones | FPR | 9.6 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 48 / inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 8.9 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 42 / inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | 8.7 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 0.6 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 42 / inside our 50% range: 36 |