AFL · ROUND 16 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Essendon
Sun 28 Jun 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 17
NM to win, 74% chance
NM 74%26% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 2.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 31.3 | 26.9 to 35.6 | 20.1 to 42.4 | 98% | 93% | 82% | 58% | 25% | outside our 90% range: 43.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 26.9 | 22.8 to 31.0 | 16.5 to 37.4 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 28% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 40.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 25.8 | 21.8 to 29.8 | 15.6 to 36.1 | 96% | 82% | 55% | 25% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 25.8 | 21.8 to 29.8 | 15.6 to 36.1 | 94% | 82% | 56% | 21% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 23.1 | 19.3 to 26.9 | 13.3 to 32.9 | 93% | 72% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 22.0 | 18.2 to 25.7 | 12.4 to 31.6 | 90% | 67% | 33% | 8% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HFFL | 20.7 | 17.1 to 24.4 | 11.4 to 30.1 | 86% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 20.0 | 16.4 to 23.5 | 10.7 to 29.2 | 84% | 53% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| George Wardlaw | RR | 19.7 | 16.1 to 23.3 | 10.5 to 28.9 | 83% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Tom Blamires | HBFL | 18.4 | 14.9 to 21.9 | 9.5 to 27.3 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.7 to 24.6 | 61% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 15.3 | 12.1 to 18.5 | 7.1 to 23.6 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Josh Goater | INT | 15.2 | 12.0 to 18.4 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 13.7 | 10.7 to 16.8 | 5.8 to 21.6 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | INT | 13.7 | 10.6 to 16.8 | 5.8 to 21.6 | 37% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | HFFR | 13.0 | 10.0 to 16.0 | 5.3 to 20.7 | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 12.5 | 9.6 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.2 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Jack Darling | CHF | 12.1 | 9.1 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Callum Coleman-Jones | INT | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.3 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.6 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | RK | 10.0 | 7.3 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Zane Duursma | FPR | 9.5 | 6.8 to 12.1 | 2.7 to 16.3 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Wil Dawson | INT | 8.3 | 5.8 to 10.8 | 1.8 to 14.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 28.5 | 24.3 to 32.7 | 17.8 to 39.2 | 97% | 89% | 72% | 39% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Darcy Parish | INT | 26.1 | 22.0 to 30.1 | 15.8 to 36.4 | 94% | 82% | 57% | 23% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Will Setterfield | R | 24.1 | 20.2 to 28.0 | 14.1 to 34.0 | 97% | 82% | 52% | 19% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 22.2 | 18.4 to 25.9 | 12.5 to 31.8 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 21.8 | 18.0 to 25.5 | 12.2 to 31.3 | 90% | 64% | 31% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 19.0 | 15.5 to 22.6 | 10.0 to 28.1 | 77% | 40% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFR | 17.9 | 14.5 to 21.3 | 9.1 to 26.7 | 72% | 35% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | HBFL | 17.7 | 14.3 to 21.1 | 8.9 to 26.4 | 71% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jordan Ridley | CHB | 17.4 | 14.0 to 20.8 | 8.7 to 26.1 | 68% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 17.1 | 13.7 to 20.4 | 8.4 to 25.7 | 65% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 17.1 | 13.7 to 20.5 | 8.5 to 25.7 | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | FPL | 15.4 | 12.2 to 18.7 | 7.2 to 23.7 | 49% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Archie Perkins | WL | 15.3 | 12.0 to 18.5 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 15.3 | 12.1 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.6 | 48% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Isaac Kako | INT | 12.3 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.7 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 11.4 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 11.1 | 8.3 to 13.9 | 3.8 to 18.3 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 10.1 | 7.4 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ben McKay | FF | 9.7 | 7.1 to 12.4 | 2.9 to 16.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Harrison Jones | FPR | 9.6 | 6.9 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.4 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 8.9 | 6.3 to 11.5 | 2.3 to 15.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | 8.7 | 6.1 to 11.3 | 2.1 to 15.3 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |