AFL · ROUND 16 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Essendon
Sun 28 Jun 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 17
NM to win, 74% chance
NM 74%26% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 2.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 113 | 97 to 130 | 72 to 154 | 96% | 91% | 82% | 68% | 57% | outside our 90% range: 173 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 98 | 82 to 114 | 59 to 138 | 88% | 76% | 62% | 48% | 31% | outside our 90% range: 139 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 97 | 81 to 113 | 57 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 64% | 46% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 110 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 95 | 79 to 110 | 55 to 134 | 87% | 76% | 60% | 42% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 118 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 88 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 48% | 30% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HFFL | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 72% | 56% | 38% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 69% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| George Wardlaw | RR | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 68% | 50% | 34% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 60% | 44% | 29% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Tom Blamires | HBFL | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 38% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Jack Darling | CHF | 65 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Cooper Trembath | RK | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 31% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Charlie Spargo | INT | 60 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Jacob Konstanty | HFFR | 59 | 45 to 73 | 24 to 94 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Josh Goater | INT | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Callum Coleman-Jones | INT | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 88 | 21% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Zane Duursma | FPR | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Wil Dawson | INT | 42 | 29 to 56 | 9 to 76 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 110 | 93 to 126 | 69 to 150 | 95% | 88% | 77% | 63% | 51% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Will Setterfield | R | 95 | 80 to 111 | 56 to 135 | 88% | 76% | 61% | 44% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Darcy Parish | INT | 87 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 126 | 83% | 65% | 47% | 30% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Sam Durham | C | 85 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 63% | 40% | 26% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 108 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 82 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 57% | 37% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 118 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFR | 72 | 58 to 87 | 35 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Xavier Duursma | HBFL | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Jordan Ridley | CHB | 69 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 47% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 42% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 65 | 50 to 79 | 29 to 101 | 36% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Archie Perkins | WL | 64 | 50 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Sullivan Robey | FPL | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 61 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 97 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 61 | 47 to 76 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Ben McKay | FF | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Isaac Kako | INT | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 50 | 36 to 64 | 15 to 84 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Harrison Jones | FPR | 48 | 34 to 61 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | 42 | 29 to 56 | 9 to 76 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 42 | 28 to 55 | 8 to 75 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |