AFL · ROUND 16 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Essendon
Sun 28 Jun 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 17
NM to win, 74% chance
NM 74%26% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 2.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Larkey | FF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.0 | 76% | 53% | 30% | 15% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Darling | CHF | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 66% | 42% | 23% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | RK | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 39% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zane Duursma | FPR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 30% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 38% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 32% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 26% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 22% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| George Wardlaw | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 29% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Callum Coleman-Jones | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Blamires | HBFL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 17% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Goater | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wil Dawson | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.8 | 0.1 to 3.9 | 72% | 49% | 28% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ben McKay | FF | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 57% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Isaac Kako | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 42% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 46% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 23% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harrison Jones | FPR | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Archie Perkins | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Parish | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 22% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Will Setterfield | R | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | HBFL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Ridley | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |