AFL · ROUND 16 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Essendon
Sun 28 Jun 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 17
NM to win, 74% chance
NM 74%26% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 14
HIT Actual margin 14 · 2.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Parker | BPR | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.7 | 2.0 to 11.2 | 83% | 71% | 56% | 43% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.4 | 1.9 to 10.9 | 81% | 69% | 54% | 40% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 6.0 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.4 | 74% | 60% | 46% | 31% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.1 | 74% | 61% | 48% | 35% | 23% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 66% | 49% | 35% | 23% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 72% | 54% | 38% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 68% | 48% | 35% | 24% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 60% | 44% | 29% | 19% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Darling | CHF | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 56% | 41% | 25% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HFFL | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 54% | 40% | 28% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 50% | 37% | 25% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Goater | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 50% | 34% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 46% | 31% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 50% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Blamires | HBFL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 52% | 34% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Zane Duursma | FPR | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 51% | 36% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 50% | 35% | 23% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 46% | 32% | 20% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | RK | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 31% | 21% | 12% | 7% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 24% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Wil Dawson | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 23% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| George Wardlaw | RR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 19% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Callum Coleman-Jones | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Ridley | CHB | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.2 | 1.8 to 10.7 | 78% | 66% | 52% | 37% | 26% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.2 | 1.8 to 10.7 | 78% | 66% | 51% | 36% | 25% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 77% | 65% | 52% | 39% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 71% | 58% | 44% | 32% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 72% | 55% | 40% | 29% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | HBFL | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 73% | 57% | 41% | 30% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Ben McKay | FF | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 70% | 53% | 37% | 25% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 60% | 44% | 30% | 18% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Archie Perkins | WL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 50% | 30% | 19% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Will Setterfield | R | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 46% | 27% | 17% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 50% | 38% | 25% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Darcy Parish | INT | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 44% | 29% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 54% | 38% | 25% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harrison Jones | FPR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 38% | 28% | 17% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 30% | 17% | 10% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 23% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | FPL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 36% | 22% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 2.8 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isaac Kako | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |