AFL · ROUND 16 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Adelaide Crows
Sat 27 Jun 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 22
ADE to win, 80% chance
PA 20%80% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 26
MISS Actual margin 26 · 48.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 28.6 | 24.5 to 32.8 | 17.9 to 39.4 | 97% | 89% | 72% | 40% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 37.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 23.3 | 19.5 to 27.1 | 13.5 to 33.1 | 93% | 74% | 41% | 13% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 22.6 | 18.8 to 26.3 | 12.9 to 32.3 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 22.3 | 18.5 to 26.1 | 12.7 to 32.0 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 21.5 | 17.7 to 25.2 | 12.0 to 30.9 | 88% | 63% | 27% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 20.8 | 17.1 to 24.4 | 11.4 to 30.1 | 86% | 59% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 18.6 | 15.2 to 22.1 | 9.7 to 27.6 | 75% | 36% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 17.7 | 14.3 to 21.1 | 8.9 to 26.4 | 71% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 14.4 | 11.2 to 17.5 | 6.3 to 22.4 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 14.2 | 11.1 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | INT | 14.1 | 11.0 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.1 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 13.5 | 10.4 to 16.5 | 5.6 to 21.3 | 38% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 13.4 | 10.4 to 16.5 | 5.6 to 21.3 | 37% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 12.6 | 9.7 to 15.6 | 5.0 to 20.3 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 12.5 | 9.6 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Jack Lukosius | WL | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Josh Lai | BPR | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.8 | 4.5 to 19.4 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | FB | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 10.3 | 7.5 to 13.0 | 3.2 to 17.3 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 10.2 | 7.5 to 12.9 | 3.2 to 17.2 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 8.6 | 6.0 to 11.1 | 2.0 to 15.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 7.5 | 5.1 to 9.9 | 1.3 to 13.7 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Laird | INT | 24.4 | 20.5 to 28.3 | 14.4 to 34.5 | 97% | 84% | 54% | 20% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 24.0 | 20.1 to 27.9 | 14.0 to 33.9 | 97% | 82% | 51% | 19% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 23.3 | 19.4 to 27.1 | 13.4 to 33.1 | 93% | 73% | 41% | 13% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 21.8 | 18.0 to 25.5 | 12.2 to 31.3 | 90% | 64% | 31% | 7% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 21.3 | 17.6 to 25.0 | 11.8 to 30.8 | 88% | 62% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| James Peatling | INT | 19.4 | 15.8 to 22.9 | 10.3 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | HBFR | 18.9 | 15.4 to 22.4 | 9.9 to 27.9 | 76% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 17.5 | 14.1 to 20.9 | 8.8 to 26.3 | 69% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Mark Keane | BPL | 17.2 | 13.9 to 20.6 | 8.6 to 25.9 | 67% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jake Soligo | R | 16.9 | 13.6 to 20.3 | 8.3 to 25.5 | 65% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPR | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.8 to 24.7 | 61% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | WL | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.5 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 15.9 | 12.6 to 19.2 | 7.5 to 24.3 | 59% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 15.3 | 12.1 to 18.5 | 7.1 to 23.6 | 48% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 15.2 | 12.0 to 18.5 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | HBFL | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 53% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 14.9 | 11.8 to 18.1 | 6.8 to 23.1 | 52% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Zac Taylor | FPL | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.8 | 5.8 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 12.4 | 9.5 to 15.4 | 4.8 to 20.0 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 11.6 | 8.8 to 14.5 | 4.2 to 19.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 11.4 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.1 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 11.2 | 8.4 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.5 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | INT | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.6 to 17.9 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |