AFL · ROUND 16 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Adelaide Crows
Sat 27 Jun 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 22
ADE to win, 80% chance
PA 20%80% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 26
MISS Actual margin 26 · 48.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 102 | 86 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 90% | 81% | 67% | 54% | 37% | outside our 90% range: 142 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 94 | 78 to 110 | 55 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 59% | 40% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 108 |
| Willem Drew | R | 85 | 70 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 79% | 63% | 41% | 26% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 85 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 63% | 41% | 26% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 82 | 67 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 56% | 37% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 112 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 112 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 53% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 69 | 54 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Jack Lukosius | WL | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 25% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Jacob Wehr | INT | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 51 | 38 to 65 | 17 to 86 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Josh Lai | BPR | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | FB | 47 | 33 to 60 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 45 | 32 to 59 | 11 to 79 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 45 | 32 to 59 | 11 to 79 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 45 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 99 | 83 to 115 | 59 to 139 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 108 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 91 | 75 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 73% | 55% | 38% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 89 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 69% | 50% | 33% | 19% | outside our 90% range: 41 |
| Rory Laird | INT | 88 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 48% | 30% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 70% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| James Peatling | INT | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPR | 74 | 59 to 88 | 36 to 111 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Daniel Curtin | WL | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Jake Soligo | R | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 24 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | HBFR | 69 | 54 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 69 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Mark Keane | BPL | 67 | 52 to 82 | 30 to 104 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Isaac Cumming | HBFL | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 64 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Zac Taylor | FPL | 60 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 59 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Darcy Fogarty | INT | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 25% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| James Borlase | FB | 49 | 36 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |