AFL · ROUND 16 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Adelaide Crows
Sat 27 Jun 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 22
ADE to win, 80% chance
PA 20%80% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 26
MISS Actual margin 26 · 48.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 2.2 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.2 | 78% | 54% | 33% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 54% | 26% | 9% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Lukosius | WL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 50% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 34% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 42% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 36% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Lai | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 71% | 40% | 18% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 62% | 39% | 20% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 54% | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | INT | 1.2 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 45% | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 43% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 50% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 30% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 29% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zac Taylor | FPL | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 28% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Soligo | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Peatling | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rory Laird | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark Keane | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |