AFL · ROUND 16 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Adelaide Crows
Sat 27 Jun 2026, 7:05pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
ADE by 22
ADE to win, 80% chance
PA 20%80% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 26
MISS Actual margin 26 · 48.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 6.9 | 4.8 to 9.0 | 2.2 to 11.6 | 84% | 72% | 58% | 46% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 6.0 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.4 | 73% | 59% | 46% | 30% | 21% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 60% | 44% | 30% | 18% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.7 | 0.9 to 8.9 | 58% | 42% | 28% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | FB | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 51% | 31% | 20% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Lukosius | WL | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 55% | 40% | 28% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Lai | BPR | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.2 | 55% | 41% | 28% | 17% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 4.3 | 2.6 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 34% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.7 | 0.4 to 7.7 | 54% | 36% | 23% | 13% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 40% | 26% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 36% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 37% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 44% | 28% | 18% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 3.6 | 2.0 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 43% | 27% | 17% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 40% | 23% | 13% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 31% | 19% | 11% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 3.2 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 28% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 2.8 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 20% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.4 to 10.0 | 73% | 60% | 45% | 33% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Rory Laird | INT | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.4 to 10.0 | 73% | 60% | 45% | 33% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Mark Keane | BPL | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 62% | 45% | 32% | 21% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 60% | 44% | 29% | 19% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 55% | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | WL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 53% | 34% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 52% | 33% | 21% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | HBFL | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 34% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 48% | 34% | 23% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 46% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 4.2 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 45% | 30% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 38% | 25% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | HBFR | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 51% | 36% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 11% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | INT | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 42% | 26% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 33% | 21% | 12% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zac Taylor | FPL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 29% | 17% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| James Peatling | INT | 2.8 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 21% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Soligo | R | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |