AFL · ROUND 17 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v St Kilda
Sun 5 Jul 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
STK by 21
STK to win, 79% chance
ESS 21%79% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 67
HIT Actual margin 67 · 46.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 29.0 | 24.8 to 33.2 | 18.2 to 39.8 | 97% | 89% | 73% | 43% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Darcy Parish | INT | 27.6 | 23.5 to 31.8 | 17.1 to 38.2 | 95% | 88% | 68% | 33% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Will Setterfield | R | 24.5 | 20.6 to 28.4 | 14.4 to 34.5 | 97% | 84% | 55% | 21% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 23.9 | 20.0 to 27.8 | 14.0 to 33.8 | 97% | 81% | 50% | 18% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 23.4 | 19.6 to 27.2 | 13.6 to 33.3 | 94% | 75% | 41% | 13% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 20.9 | 17.2 to 24.6 | 11.5 to 30.3 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 20.1 | 16.5 to 23.8 | 10.9 to 29.4 | 85% | 54% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jordan Ridley | CHB | 19.7 | 16.1 to 23.2 | 10.5 to 28.8 | 83% | 52% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFR | 17.5 | 14.1 to 20.9 | 8.7 to 26.2 | 69% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | HBFL | 17.4 | 14.0 to 20.8 | 8.7 to 26.1 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 17.3 | 13.9 to 20.7 | 8.6 to 26.0 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 17.1 | 13.8 to 20.5 | 8.5 to 25.8 | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | FPL | 16.6 | 13.2 to 19.9 | 8.0 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 54% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Archie Perkins | WL | 14.9 | 11.7 to 18.1 | 6.7 to 23.0 | 51% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 14.2 | 11.0 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Peter Wright | FPR | 13.9 | 10.8 to 17.0 | 5.9 to 21.8 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 13.3 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 12.5 | 9.6 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Isaac Kako | INT | 12.0 | 9.1 to 15.0 | 4.5 to 19.5 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 11.5 | 8.7 to 14.4 | 4.2 to 18.9 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Ben McKay | FF | 10.6 | 7.9 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 10.5 | 7.7 to 13.3 | 3.4 to 17.6 | 13% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | R | 31.3 | 26.9 to 35.6 | 20.1 to 42.4 | 98% | 94% | 81% | 58% | 25% | outside our 90% range: 46.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 26.5 | 22.5 to 30.6 | 16.1 to 36.9 | 95% | 85% | 60% | 25% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFL | 25.7 | 21.7 to 29.7 | 15.5 to 36.0 | 98% | 88% | 61% | 27% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 42.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WR | 24.8 | 20.9 to 28.7 | 14.7 to 34.9 | 97% | 85% | 56% | 22% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 22.4 | 18.6 to 26.2 | 12.7 to 32.1 | 92% | 70% | 35% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Max Hall | HFFR | 22.3 | 18.5 to 26.0 | 12.6 to 31.9 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 21.9 | 18.1 to 25.6 | 12.3 to 31.4 | 90% | 66% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | RK | 18.3 | 14.8 to 21.8 | 9.4 to 27.2 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HBFR | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.8 to 24.7 | 61% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 16.0 | 12.7 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.4 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 14.9 | 11.8 to 18.1 | 6.8 to 23.1 | 51% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 14.7 | 11.5 to 17.9 | 6.6 to 22.8 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Mitch Owens | FPR | 13.3 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Liam Stocker | C | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.1 to 20.5 | 30% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.1 | 4.7 to 19.7 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | INT | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.4 to 19.2 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Angus Hastie | CHB | 11.7 | 8.8 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.2 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 11.7 | 8.9 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.2 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 10.4 | 7.7 to 13.2 | 3.3 to 17.5 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 10.3 | 7.5 to 13.0 | 3.3 to 17.3 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 9.6 | 6.9 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.4 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |