AFL · ROUND 17 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v St Kilda
Sun 5 Jul 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
STK by 21
STK to win, 79% chance
ESS 21%79% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 67
HIT Actual margin 67 · 46.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 115 | 98 to 131 | 73 to 156 | 96% | 91% | 84% | 70% | 58% | inside our 50% range: 116 |
| Will Setterfield | R | 99 | 83 to 115 | 59 to 139 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | 32% | outside our 90% range: 27 |
| Darcy Parish | INT | 92 | 76 to 107 | 53 to 131 | 85% | 74% | 57% | 38% | 22% | outside our 90% range: 42 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 91 | 76 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 74% | 56% | 38% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Sam Durham | C | 90 | 74 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 35% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Jordan Ridley | CHB | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 68% | 50% | 34% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Peter Wright | FPR | 74 | 59 to 89 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFR | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Xavier Duursma | HBFL | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 47% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Sullivan Robey | FPL | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Archie Perkins | WL | 66 | 51 to 80 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 66 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Ben McKay | FF | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Isaac Kako | INT | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 87 | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 14 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | R | 112 | 96 to 129 | 71 to 153 | 95% | 90% | 81% | 67% | 56% | outside our 90% range: 160 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 94 | 78 to 110 | 54 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 40% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 115 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFL | 93 | 77 to 109 | 54 to 132 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 39% | 26% | outside our 90% range: 159 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 88 | 72 to 104 | 49 to 127 | 84% | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Marcus Windhager | WR | 88 | 72 to 104 | 49 to 127 | 84% | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 85 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 63% | 40% | 26% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Max Hall | HFFR | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 62% | 40% | 25% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 152 |
| Rowan Marshall | RK | 84 | 68 to 99 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 118 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 110 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Mitch Owens | FPR | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HBFR | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Liam Stocker | C | 55 | 40 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 51 | 37 to 65 | 16 to 85 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 51 | 37 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Angus Hastie | CHB | 49 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 83 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 47 | 33 to 60 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Liam O'Connell | INT | 46 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 42 | 29 to 56 | 9 to 76 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 78 |