AFL · ROUND 17 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v St Kilda
Sun 5 Jul 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
STK by 21
STK to win, 79% chance
ESS 21%79% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 67
HIT Actual margin 67 · 46.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 65% | 41% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Peter Wright | FPR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 50% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben McKay | FF | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 45% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Isaac Kako | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Archie Perkins | WL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Parish | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Will Setterfield | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Ridley | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.0 | 76% | 53% | 30% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 65% | 41% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 71% | 40% | 18% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mitch Owens | FPR | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 45% | 21% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Max Hall | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 45% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 27% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 36% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | R | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 36% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | RK | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Stocker | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Hastie | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |