AFL · ROUND 17 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v St Kilda
Sun 5 Jul 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
STK by 21
STK to win, 79% chance
ESS 21%79% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 67
HIT Actual margin 67 · 46.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Ridley | CHB | 7.0 | 4.9 to 9.1 | 2.3 to 11.8 | 84% | 73% | 59% | 46% | 34% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.7 | 2.0 to 11.2 | 83% | 70% | 56% | 43% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 77% | 63% | 49% | 34% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 69% | 57% | 42% | 30% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.2 to 9.6 | 70% | 54% | 39% | 28% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | HBFL | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 66% | 49% | 35% | 23% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 66% | 49% | 35% | 23% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Ben McKay | FF | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 72% | 54% | 38% | 27% | 14% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Archie Perkins | WL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 56% | 40% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 55% | 41% | 28% | 17% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 47% | 34% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Will Setterfield | R | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 34% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Parish | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 51% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Peter Wright | FPR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 51% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 45% | 32% | 20% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 45% | 32% | 20% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | FPL | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 36% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 37% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 26% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isaac Kako | INT | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 8.1 | 5.9 to 10.4 | 3.0 to 13.2 | 90% | 83% | 74% | 63% | 51% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 6.7 | 4.6 to 8.7 | 2.0 to 11.3 | 83% | 72% | 57% | 44% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFL | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 78% | 65% | 51% | 36% | 25% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.8 | 69% | 57% | 42% | 30% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.8 | 69% | 57% | 42% | 30% | 21% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HBFR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 20% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 56% | 40% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 34% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Max Hall | HFFR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 49% | 33% | 22% | 13% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | R | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 51% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Liam Stocker | C | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 39% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Mitch Owens | FPR | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 39% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | RK | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 36% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 37% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 37% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 37% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Angus Hastie | CHB | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 34% | 21% | 13% | 6% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 23% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 19% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 19% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |