AFL · ROUND 17 · MARVEL STADIUM
Essendon v St Kilda
Sun 5 Jul 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
STK by 21
STK to win, 79% chance
ESS 21%79% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 67
HIT Actual margin 67 · 46.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 29.0 / inside our 50% range: 28.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.3 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 115 / inside our 50% range: 116 |
| Darcy Parish | INT | 27.6 / outside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 92 / outside our 90% range: 42 |
| Will Setterfield | R | 24.5 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 5.3 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 99 / outside our 90% range: 27 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 23.9 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.6 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 91 / inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Sam Durham | C | 23.4 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.8 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 90 / inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 20.9 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 76 / inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 20.1 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.6 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 75 / inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Jordan Ridley | CHB | 19.7 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.0 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 79 / inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFR | 17.5 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 73 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Xavier Duursma | HBFL | 17.4 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.3 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 71 / inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPR | 17.3 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.4 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 71 / inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 17.1 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Sullivan Robey | FPL | 16.6 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 15.1 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Archie Perkins | WL | 14.9 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 14.2 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 55 / inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Peter Wright | FPR | 13.9 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 74 / inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 13.3 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 12.5 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Isaac Kako | INT | 12.0 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 52 / outside our 90% range: 14 |
| Nick Bryan | RK | 11.5 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Ben McKay | FF | 10.6 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 5.1 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 54 / inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 10.5 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 71 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | R | 31.3 / outside our 90% range: 46.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 112 / outside our 90% range: 160 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 26.5 / inside our 50% range: 29.0 | 0.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.0 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 5.0 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 94 / inside our 90% range: 115 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFL | 25.7 / outside our 90% range: 42.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 6.2 / outside our 90% range: 14.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 93 / outside our 90% range: 159 |
| Marcus Windhager | WR | 24.8 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 88 / inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 22.4 / inside our 50% range: 25.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 85 / inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Max Hall | HFFR | 22.3 / outside our 90% range: 33.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.2 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 3.6 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 84 / outside our 90% range: 152 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 21.9 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 8.1 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 88 / inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Rowan Marshall | RK | 18.3 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.5 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.7 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 84 / inside our 90% range: 118 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HBFR | 16.2 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.8 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 65 / inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 16.0 / outside our 90% range: 27.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.6 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 70 / outside our 90% range: 110 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 14.9 / outside our 90% range: 25.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 61 / inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 14.7 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.7 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 68 / inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Mitch Owens | FPR | 13.3 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 65 / inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 12.9 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 5.6 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 65 / inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Liam Stocker | C | 12.8 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 55 / inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 12.2 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 51 / inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Liam O'Connell | INT | 11.8 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.3 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 46 / inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Angus Hastie | CHB | 11.7 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 49 / inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 11.7 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 51 / inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 11.5 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 47 / inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 10.4 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 52 / inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 10.3 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 9.6 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.5 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 42 / outside our 90% range: 78 |