AFL · ROUND 17 · CORROBOREE GROUP OVAL MANUKA
GWS GIANTS v Fremantle
Sat 4 Jul 2026, 1:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 13
FRE to win, 69% chance
GWS 31%69% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 21
MISS Actual margin 21 · 34.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 29.9 | 25.7 to 34.2 | 19.0 to 40.9 | 98% | 91% | 78% | 49% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 32.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 29.2 | 24.9 to 33.4 | 18.3 to 40.0 | 97% | 90% | 75% | 45% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFL | 28.9 | 24.7 to 33.2 | 18.2 to 39.7 | 97% | 89% | 73% | 42% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 28.3 | 24.2 to 32.5 | 17.6 to 39.0 | 96% | 89% | 71% | 38% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 20.1 | 16.5 to 23.7 | 10.9 to 29.4 | 85% | 54% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 19.2 | 15.6 to 22.7 | 10.1 to 28.2 | 82% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Toby Greene | CHF | 19.2 | 15.7 to 22.8 | 10.2 to 28.3 | 82% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 18.2 | 14.8 to 21.7 | 9.4 to 27.1 | 73% | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 16.6 | 13.2 to 19.9 | 8.0 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | BPR | 16.5 | 13.1 to 19.8 | 8.0 to 25.0 | 63% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFL | 15.5 | 12.2 to 18.7 | 7.2 to 23.7 | 50% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Toby Bedford | RR | 15.2 | 12.0 to 18.4 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 14.8 | 11.6 to 18.0 | 6.7 to 22.9 | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Conor Stone | INT | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 12.0 | 9.1 to 14.9 | 4.5 to 19.5 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 11.7 | 8.8 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.1 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Harrison Oliver | INT | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.7 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FF | 10.6 | 7.8 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Riley Hamilton | HFFR | 10.4 | 7.7 to 13.2 | 3.4 to 17.5 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FPL | 10.2 | 7.5 to 13.0 | 3.2 to 17.3 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jack Ough | INT | 9.4 | 6.8 to 12.1 | 2.6 to 16.3 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Josaia Delana | INT | 9.2 | 6.6 to 11.8 | 2.5 to 16.0 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 25.8 | 21.8 to 29.8 | 15.5 to 36.1 | 98% | 88% | 62% | 30% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 23.4 | 19.5 to 27.2 | 13.5 to 33.2 | 94% | 75% | 41% | 13% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 23.3 | 19.5 to 27.1 | 13.5 to 33.1 | 93% | 74% | 41% | 13% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 23.2 | 19.4 to 27.0 | 13.4 to 33.0 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 21.2 | 17.5 to 24.9 | 11.7 to 30.6 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 21.2 | 17.5 to 24.8 | 11.7 to 30.6 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 18.7 | 15.2 to 22.2 | 9.7 to 27.6 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WR | 18.4 | 14.9 to 21.9 | 9.5 to 27.3 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 18.2 | 14.7 to 21.7 | 9.3 to 27.1 | 73% | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WL | 18.2 | 14.7 to 21.6 | 9.3 to 27.0 | 73% | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 17.7 | 14.3 to 21.1 | 9.0 to 26.5 | 71% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 16.7 | 13.4 to 20.1 | 8.2 to 25.3 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | INT | 16.6 | 13.3 to 19.9 | 8.1 to 25.2 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 14.8 | 11.6 to 18.0 | 6.6 to 22.9 | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.1 to 20.5 | 30% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 12.6 | 9.7 to 15.6 | 5.0 to 20.3 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Michael Frederick | CHF | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.7 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.6 to 17.9 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 10.2 | 7.5 to 12.9 | 3.2 to 17.2 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 9.5 | 6.9 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.4 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 8.8 | 6.3 to 11.4 | 2.2 to 15.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Sean Darcy | INT | 8.7 | 6.1 to 11.2 | 2.1 to 15.2 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |