AFL · ROUND 17 · CORROBOREE GROUP OVAL MANUKA
GWS GIANTS v Fremantle
Sat 4 Jul 2026, 1:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 13
FRE to win, 69% chance
GWS 31%69% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 21
MISS Actual margin 21 · 34.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 104 | 87 to 120 | 63 to 144 | 91% | 83% | 69% | 58% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFL | 102 | 86 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 91% | 81% | 67% | 56% | 38% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 102 | 86 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 90% | 81% | 67% | 54% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 99 | 83 to 115 | 59 to 139 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 50% | 33% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Toby Greene | CHF | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 50% | 33% | 19% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 123 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 108 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 75 | 60 to 90 | 37 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 72 | 58 to 87 | 35 to 110 | 55% | 37% | 22% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Toby Bedford | RR | 65 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Harry Himmelberg | BPR | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFL | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 97 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 61 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 97 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Aaron Cadman | FPL | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Jake Stringer | FF | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 99 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 52 | 38 to 65 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Conor Stone | INT | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Riley Hamilton | HFFR | 48 | 34 to 61 | 13 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Harrison Oliver | INT | 43 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Jack Ough | INT | 41 | 28 to 55 | 8 to 74 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Josaia Delana | INT | 40 | 26 to 53 | 7 to 73 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 98 | 82 to 114 | 59 to 138 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 96 | 80 to 112 | 56 to 135 | 88% | 77% | 62% | 45% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 88 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 86 | 70 to 102 | 48 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 43% | 28% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 102 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 84 | 68 to 99 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 82 | 66 to 97 | 43 to 120 | 71% | 56% | 37% | 23% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 81 | 65 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 108 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Neil Erasmus | WR | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WL | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 47% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Matthew Johnson | INT | 65 | 50 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 38% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 65 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 61 | 47 to 76 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Michael Frederick | CHF | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 54 | 40 to 68 | 20 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Sean Darcy | INT | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 50 | 36 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 40 | 27 to 54 | 7 to 73 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |