AFL · ROUND 17 · CORROBOREE GROUP OVAL MANUKA
GWS GIANTS v Fremantle
Sat 4 Jul 2026, 1:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 13
FRE to win, 69% chance
GWS 31%69% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 21
MISS Actual margin 21 · 34.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Stringer | FF | 1.8 | 1.1 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 65% | 41% | 22% | 11% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FPL | 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 71% | 40% | 18% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Toby Greene | CHF | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 71% | 40% | 18% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 45% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Riley Hamilton | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Toby Bedford | RR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Conor Stone | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harrison Oliver | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ough | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josaia Delana | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jye Amiss | FF | 2.7 | 1.8 to 3.6 | 0.5 to 4.9 | 84% | 60% | 40% | 25% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 2.4 | 1.5 to 3.3 | 0.3 to 4.5 | 81% | 58% | 35% | 17% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 2.2 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.1 | 78% | 54% | 33% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Michael Frederick | CHF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 57% | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 45% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 27% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 27% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 36% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sean Darcy | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |