AFL · ROUND 17 · CORROBOREE GROUP OVAL MANUKA
GWS GIANTS v Fremantle
Sat 4 Jul 2026, 1:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 13
FRE to win, 69% chance
GWS 31%69% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 21
MISS Actual margin 21 · 34.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Idun | BPL | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 77% | 65% | 50% | 38% | 25% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 5.9 | 3.9 to 7.8 | 1.5 to 10.2 | 77% | 65% | 50% | 38% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFL | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 77% | 65% | 50% | 38% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | BPR | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.1 | 75% | 62% | 48% | 35% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.1 | 75% | 62% | 48% | 35% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 61% | 44% | 32% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FPL | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 55% | 41% | 28% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Toby Greene | CHF | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 45% | 32% | 20% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 36% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 36% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FF | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 36% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 37% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 34% | 21% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 26% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Conor Stone | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 26% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 2.8 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 19% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Riley Hamilton | HFFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 19% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Ough | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 24% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harrison Oliver | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josaia Delana | INT | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Toby Bedford | RR | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.2 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 78% | 65% | 51% | 36% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 66% | 49% | 35% | 23% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 61% | 44% | 32% | 21% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 65% | 47% | 33% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 20% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 55% | 41% | 28% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 49% | 33% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 40% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 51% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 39% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Michael Frederick | CHF | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 37% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 34% | 21% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | WR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 34% | 21% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 26% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 19% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Sean Darcy | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |