AFL · ROUND 17 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Brisbane Lions
Thu 2 Jul 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 8
GEE to win, 63% chance
GEE 63%37% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 22
MISS Actual margin 22 · 30.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 30.8 / inside our 50% range: 31.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.8 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 111 / inside our 50% range: 126 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 30.1 / inside our 50% range: 30.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 106 / inside our 50% range: 105 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 21.7 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 83 / inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Tanner Bruhn | WR | 20.7 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 78 / inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Tom Stewart | CHB | 19.9 / inside our 90% range: 25.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 74 / inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Tom Atkins | INT | 18.6 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 6.0 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 73 / inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 18.4 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 74 / inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | HFFL | 18.3 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 1.2 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.9 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.5 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 74 / outside our 90% range: 124 |
| Zach Guthrie | BPR | 18.0 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.0 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 69 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Shaun Mannagh | FPL | 15.6 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.5 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 14.9 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 65 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Mark O'Connor | HBFR | 14.5 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 14.4 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Sam De Koning | INT | 14.1 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 60 / inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 13.2 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.7 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.4 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 78 / outside our 90% range: 13 |
| Mark Blicavs | INT | 12.9 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 62 / inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFL | 12.0 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 52 / inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 11.1 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 56 / inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 10.8 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 10.4 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | HFFR | 10.3 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 48 / inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 10.2 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 48 / inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 9.9 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 70 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 29.2 / inside our 50% range: 28.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 97 / inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 26.9 / inside our 90% range: 32.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 4.5 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 101 / inside our 90% range: 120 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 23.1 / inside our 50% range: 26.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 88 / inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 21.1 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 1.1 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 87 / inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 20.8 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 6.8 / outside our 90% range: 14.0 | 89 / inside our 90% range: 115 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 19.1 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 69 / inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 19.0 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.7 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 74 / inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 18.4 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 72 / inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 14.2 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 56 / inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Ryan Lester | HBFR | 13.7 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.3 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 13.4 / outside our 90% range: 24.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.9 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 61 / outside our 90% range: 107 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 12.7 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.2 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 58 / inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 12.1 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 49 / inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Darcy Gardiner | BPR | 11.9 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 49 / inside our 50% range: 44 |
| James Tunstill | HFFR | 11.4 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 46 / inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 11.2 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Darcy Fort | INT | 11.2 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Conor McKenna | FPR | 10.8 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 50 / inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 10.7 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 1.5 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 56 / inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 10.1 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 59 / inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Sam Draper | RK | 9.9 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 59 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 9.7 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 48 / inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 9.2 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 49 / inside our 90% range: 32 |