AFL · ROUND 17 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Brisbane Lions
Thu 2 Jul 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 8
GEE to win, 63% chance
GEE 63%37% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 22
MISS Actual margin 22 · 30.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 30.8 | 26.5 to 35.2 | 19.8 to 41.9 | 98% | 93% | 80% | 56% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 31.0 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 30.1 | 25.8 to 34.4 | 19.1 to 41.1 | 98% | 91% | 79% | 51% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 21.7 | 17.9 to 25.4 | 12.1 to 31.2 | 89% | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | WR | 20.7 | 17.0 to 24.3 | 11.3 to 30.0 | 86% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Tom Stewart | CHB | 19.9 | 16.3 to 23.5 | 10.7 to 29.1 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Tom Atkins | INT | 18.6 | 15.1 to 22.1 | 9.7 to 27.6 | 75% | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 18.4 | 14.9 to 21.9 | 9.5 to 27.3 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | HFFL | 18.3 | 14.8 to 21.8 | 9.4 to 27.2 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | BPR | 18.0 | 14.5 to 21.4 | 9.2 to 26.8 | 72% | 29% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | FPL | 15.6 | 12.4 to 18.8 | 7.3 to 23.9 | 50% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 14.9 | 11.7 to 18.1 | 6.7 to 23.0 | 51% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | HBFR | 14.5 | 11.4 to 17.7 | 6.4 to 22.6 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 14.4 | 11.2 to 17.5 | 6.3 to 22.4 | 47% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Sam De Koning | INT | 14.1 | 11.0 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.1 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 13.2 | 10.2 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 21.0 | 35% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | INT | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFL | 12.0 | 9.1 to 14.9 | 4.5 to 19.5 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 11.1 | 8.2 to 13.9 | 3.8 to 18.3 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.6 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 10.4 | 7.6 to 13.2 | 3.3 to 17.5 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | HFFR | 10.3 | 7.5 to 13.0 | 3.2 to 17.3 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 10.2 | 7.5 to 13.0 | 3.2 to 17.3 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.6 | 3.0 to 16.8 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 29.2 | 24.9 to 33.4 | 18.3 to 40.0 | 97% | 90% | 75% | 45% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 26.9 | 22.8 to 31.0 | 16.4 to 37.3 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 28% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 23.1 | 19.3 to 27.0 | 13.3 to 32.9 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 21.1 | 17.5 to 24.8 | 11.7 to 30.6 | 87% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 20.8 | 17.2 to 24.5 | 11.4 to 30.2 | 86% | 59% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 19.1 | 15.6 to 22.7 | 10.1 to 28.2 | 78% | 41% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 19.0 | 15.4 to 22.5 | 9.9 to 28.0 | 77% | 40% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 18.4 | 15.0 to 21.9 | 9.5 to 27.3 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 14.2 | 11.0 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Ryan Lester | HBFR | 13.7 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.8 to 21.6 | 37% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 13.4 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.6 to 21.2 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 12.7 | 9.7 to 15.7 | 5.0 to 20.3 | 29% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | BPR | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.8 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| James Tunstill | HFFR | 11.4 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 11.2 | 8.3 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.4 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Darcy Fort | INT | 11.2 | 8.3 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.4 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Conor McKenna | FPR | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.6 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 10.1 | 7.4 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Sam Draper | RK | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.6 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 9.7 | 7.0 to 12.3 | 2.8 to 16.5 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 9.2 | 6.6 to 11.8 | 2.5 to 15.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |