AFL · ROUND 17 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Brisbane Lions
Thu 2 Jul 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 8
GEE to win, 63% chance
GEE 63%37% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 22
MISS Actual margin 22 · 30.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 111 | 94 to 127 | 70 to 151 | 95% | 89% | 79% | 65% | 52% | inside our 50% range: 126 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 106 | 90 to 123 | 66 to 147 | 93% | 86% | 73% | 60% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 105 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 83 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 121 | 76% | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Tanner Bruhn | WR | 78 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 78 | 62 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 13 |
| Tom Stewart | CHB | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 112 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | HFFL | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 25% | 14% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 124 |
| Tom Atkins | INT | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Zach Guthrie | BPR | 69 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Shaun Mannagh | FPL | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 66 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 65 | 50 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 37% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Mark Blicavs | INT | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 31% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Mark O'Connor | HBFR | 60 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Sam De Koning | INT | 60 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 25% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFL | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 48 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | HFFR | 48 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | C | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 52% | 36% | inside our 90% range: 120 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 97 | 82 to 113 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 47% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 89 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 69% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 115 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 88 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 84% | 66% | 48% | 30% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 87 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Darcy Fort | INT | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 61 | 47 to 75 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 107 |
| Ryan Lester | HBFR | 60 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 59 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Sam Draper | RK | 59 | 45 to 73 | 24 to 95 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 58 | 44 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 56 | 42 to 71 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 25% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Conor McKenna | FPR | 50 | 37 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Darcy Gardiner | BPR | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 48 | 34 to 61 | 13 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| James Tunstill | HFFR | 46 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |