AFL · ROUND 17 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Brisbane Lions
Thu 2 Jul 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 8
GEE to win, 63% chance
GEE 63%37% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 22
MISS Actual margin 22 · 30.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Atkins | INT | 6.0 | 4.1 to 7.8 | 1.8 to 10.1 | 86% | 75% | 62% | 51% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 4.8 | 3.2 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.6 | 73% | 56% | 40% | 27% | 19% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.4 to 7.0 | 58% | 39% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 50% | 28% | 16% | 11% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | WR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 51% | 31% | 19% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 36% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | FPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 36% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam De Koning | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | BPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 21% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Stewart | CHB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 19% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Kolodjashnij | HBFL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | CHF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 6.8 | 4.8 to 8.8 | 2.4 to 11.2 | 90% | 81% | 71% | 60% | 49% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 67% | 49% | 33% | 23% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 58% | 39% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 58% | 37% | 21% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 44% | 26% | 13% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 42% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 42% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Fort | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 33% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 33% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Conor McKenna | FPR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Draper | RK | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Tunstill | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ryan Lester | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | BPR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 19% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |