AFL · ROUND 17 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Collingwood
Sat 4 Jul 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 5
COL to win, 58% chance
GCS 42%58% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 6
HIT Actual margin 6 · 0.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | C | 31.0 | 26.7 to 35.3 | 19.9 to 42.1 | 98% | 93% | 81% | 56% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 26.9 | 22.8 to 30.9 | 16.4 to 37.3 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 28% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 25.9 | 21.9 to 29.9 | 15.6 to 36.2 | 94% | 82% | 56% | 21% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Christian Petracca | FPL | 24.2 | 20.3 to 28.1 | 14.2 to 34.2 | 97% | 83% | 53% | 20% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 23.9 | 20.0 to 27.8 | 13.9 to 33.8 | 97% | 81% | 50% | 18% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Touk Miller | RR | 23.9 | 20.0 to 27.8 | 14.0 to 33.9 | 97% | 81% | 50% | 18% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 20.8 | 17.1 to 24.4 | 11.4 to 30.1 | 86% | 59% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Wil Powell | HBFR | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.7 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 18.1 | 14.6 to 21.5 | 9.2 to 26.9 | 72% | 30% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FF | 15.5 | 12.3 to 18.8 | 7.2 to 23.8 | 50% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | CHB | 15.5 | 12.2 to 18.7 | 7.2 to 23.8 | 50% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Jai Murray | WL | 15.2 | 12.0 to 18.4 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 14.1 | 10.9 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.0 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Beau Addinsall | WR | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.0 to 21.9 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFR | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Nick Holman | INT | 11.4 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Ben Jepson | INT | 11.3 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Ben Long | FPR | 11.3 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 4.0 to 18.5 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Dylan Patterson | INT | 11.1 | 8.2 to 13.9 | 3.8 to 18.3 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 10.0 | 7.3 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 17.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Ethan Read | INT | 9.2 | 6.6 to 11.8 | 2.5 to 15.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jed Walter | CHF | 9.1 | 6.5 to 11.8 | 2.4 to 15.9 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ben King | HFFL | 8.8 | 6.2 to 11.4 | 2.2 to 15.4 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | FF | 30.9 | 26.5 to 35.2 | 19.8 to 42.0 | 98% | 93% | 80% | 56% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 31.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 25.5 | 21.5 to 29.5 | 15.3 to 35.7 | 98% | 88% | 60% | 25% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 22.0 | 18.3 to 25.8 | 12.4 to 31.6 | 90% | 67% | 33% | 8% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFR | 20.9 | 17.2 to 24.6 | 11.5 to 30.3 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 20.8 | 17.1 to 24.4 | 11.4 to 30.1 | 86% | 59% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WR | 19.4 | 15.8 to 22.9 | 10.3 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPL | 17.8 | 14.3 to 21.2 | 9.0 to 26.5 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 17.6 | 14.2 to 21.0 | 8.8 to 26.3 | 70% | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFL | 16.9 | 13.6 to 20.3 | 8.3 to 25.5 | 65% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Edward Allan | RR | 16.7 | 13.4 to 20.1 | 8.2 to 25.3 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WL | 16.7 | 13.3 to 20.0 | 8.1 to 25.2 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.8 to 24.7 | 61% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Ned Long | INT | 15.4 | 12.2 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.7 | 48% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.0 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 13.3 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Angus Anderson | C | 12.7 | 9.7 to 15.7 | 5.1 to 20.4 | 29% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPR | 12.4 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 20.0 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Liam Puncher | INT | 10.6 | 7.9 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Sam Swadling | INT | 10.6 | 7.8 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 10.0 | 7.2 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | CHF | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.6 | 3.0 to 16.8 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Daniel McStay | INT | 9.0 | 6.4 to 11.6 | 2.3 to 15.7 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jack Buller | FPL | 8.2 | 5.7 to 10.8 | 1.8 to 14.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |