AFL · ROUND 17 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Collingwood
Sat 4 Jul 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 5
COL to win, 58% chance
GCS 42%58% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 6
HIT Actual margin 6 · 0.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | C | 111 | 94 to 127 | 70 to 152 | 95% | 89% | 79% | 65% | 52% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 140 | 89% | 79% | 64% | 51% | 35% | inside our 90% range: 130 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 48% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 90 | 74 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 35% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Touk Miller | RR | 88 | 73 to 104 | 49 to 127 | 84% | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 111 |
| Christian Petracca | FPL | 88 | 72 to 104 | 49 to 127 | 84% | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 78 | 63 to 93 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 95 |
| Wil Powell | HBFR | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Zeke Uwland | CHB | 63 | 48 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 146 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FF | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Ben Long | FPR | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Jai Murray | WL | 58 | 44 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFR | 58 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Beau Addinsall | WR | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Ben King | HFFL | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Jed Walter | CHF | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Ethan Read | INT | 50 | 36 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Nick Holman | INT | 48 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Dylan Patterson | INT | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Ben Jepson | INT | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | FF | 97 | 81 to 113 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 64% | 46% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 111 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 89 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 69% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 84 | 69 to 99 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 55% | 37% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Dan Houston | HBFR | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPL | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WR | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 67 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Edward Allan | RR | 65 | 50 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 37% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 65 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFL | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WL | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Ned Long | INT | 62 | 48 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 32% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 100 |
| Daniel McStay | INT | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Angus Anderson | C | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Billy Frampton | BPR | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Liam Puncher | INT | 47 | 33 to 60 | 13 to 80 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Harvey Harrison | CHF | 46 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Jack Buller | FPL | 44 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Sam Swadling | INT | 44 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 62 |