AFL · ROUND 17 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Collingwood
Sat 4 Jul 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 5
COL to win, 58% chance
GCS 42%58% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 6
HIT Actual margin 6 · 0.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben King | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.3 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.1 | 76% | 53% | 30% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jed Walter | CHF | 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 71% | 40% | 18% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Long | FPR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 57% | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Christian Petracca | FPL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 45% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 36% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ethan Read | INT | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FF | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Touk Miller | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Beau Addinsall | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dylan Patterson | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jai Murray | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Holman | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Anderson | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | CHB | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Jepson | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wil Powell | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 71% | 40% | 18% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 57% | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Buller | FPL | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 63% | 33% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Daicos | FF | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 50% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Daniel McStay | INT | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 58% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 58% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | CHF | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Angus Anderson | C | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WR | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Puncher | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Long | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Swadling | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Edward Allan | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |