AFL · ROUND 17 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Collingwood
Sat 4 Jul 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 5
COL to win, 58% chance
GCS 42%58% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 6
HIT Actual margin 6 · 0.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.3 | 1.8 to 10.8 | 79% | 67% | 53% | 37% | 26% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 77% | 65% | 50% | 38% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.1 | 75% | 62% | 48% | 35% | 24% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 5.4 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 70% | 54% | 39% | 28% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 58% | 42% | 28% | 16% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Wil Powell | HBFR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 20% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Noah Anderson | C | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 49% | 33% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | CHB | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 39% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Jed Walter | CHF | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 45% | 32% | 20% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Long | FPR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 37% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Touk Miller | RR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 37% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ben King | HFFL | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jai Murray | WL | 3.2 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Christian Petracca | FPL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 23% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ethan Read | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Jepson | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Dylan Patterson | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 24% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Beau Addinsall | WR | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Matt Rowell | R | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FF | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 15% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Holman | INT | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Houston | HBFR | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.8 | 69% | 57% | 42% | 30% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPR | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.2 to 9.6 | 70% | 54% | 39% | 28% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.2 to 9.6 | 70% | 54% | 39% | 28% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 66% | 49% | 35% | 23% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 56% | 40% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 50% | 30% | 19% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 34% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 49% | 33% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 49% | 33% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 51% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Nick Daicos | FF | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 39% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WR | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 45% | 32% | 20% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Daniel McStay | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 36% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Buller | FPL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 36% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 3.2 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ned Long | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Angus Anderson | C | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 24% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | CHF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Swadling | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Puncher | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Edward Allan | RR | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |