AFL · ROUND 17 · UTAS STADIUM
Hawthorn v Melbourne
Sat 4 Jul 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 12
HAW to win, 68% chance
HAW 68%32% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 35
MISS Actual margin 35 · 47.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 28.3 | 24.2 to 32.5 | 17.6 to 39.0 | 96% | 89% | 71% | 38% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 23.1 | 19.3 to 26.9 | 13.3 to 32.9 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Will Day | C | 22.6 | 18.8 to 26.4 | 12.9 to 32.3 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 21.9 | 18.1 to 25.6 | 12.3 to 31.4 | 90% | 66% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | INT | 21.8 | 18.1 to 25.6 | 12.3 to 31.4 | 90% | 65% | 32% | 8% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 21.1 | 17.4 to 24.8 | 11.7 to 30.5 | 87% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 20.9 | 17.2 to 24.5 | 11.5 to 30.2 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 19.5 | 16.0 to 23.1 | 10.4 to 28.7 | 82% | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Harry Morrison | WR | 18.0 | 14.5 to 21.4 | 9.1 to 26.8 | 72% | 29% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 17.1 | 13.7 to 20.4 | 8.4 to 25.7 | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 16.4 | 13.1 to 19.7 | 7.9 to 24.9 | 62% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | HBFR | 12.2 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.6 to 19.7 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Bodie Ryan | FB | 12.0 | 9.1 to 14.9 | 4.5 to 19.5 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Flynn Perez | INT | 12.0 | 9.1 to 14.9 | 4.5 to 19.5 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jack Dalton | INT | 11.5 | 8.7 to 14.4 | 4.2 to 18.9 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 11.5 | 8.7 to 14.4 | 4.2 to 18.9 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Matt Hill | FPL | 11.3 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 11.2 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 3.9 to 18.5 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.6 to 17.9 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.6 | 3.0 to 16.8 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Noah Mraz | HBFL | 9.8 | 7.1 to 12.5 | 2.9 to 16.7 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Tom Barrass | CHB | 9.2 | 6.6 to 11.8 | 2.5 to 15.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| William McCabe | INT | 8.5 | 6.0 to 11.1 | 2.0 to 15.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 23.8 | 20.0 to 27.7 | 13.9 to 33.7 | 96% | 81% | 49% | 17% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 22.8 | 19.0 to 26.6 | 13.0 to 32.5 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 22.3 | 18.6 to 26.1 | 12.7 to 32.0 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 21.3 | 17.6 to 25.0 | 11.8 to 30.7 | 88% | 62% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 20.9 | 17.2 to 24.5 | 11.5 to 30.3 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Ed Langdon | R | 20.3 | 16.7 to 24.0 | 11.0 to 29.6 | 84% | 54% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 19.9 | 16.3 to 23.5 | 10.7 to 29.1 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | HBFR | 17.1 | 13.8 to 20.5 | 8.5 to 25.8 | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WL | 16.7 | 13.4 to 20.0 | 8.1 to 25.3 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | WR | 16.6 | 13.3 to 19.9 | 8.1 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 16.5 | 13.2 to 19.9 | 8.0 to 25.1 | 63% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 15.5 | 12.3 to 18.8 | 7.2 to 23.8 | 50% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 14.2 | 11.1 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 13.5 | 10.4 to 16.5 | 5.6 to 21.3 | 34% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | CHB | 13.5 | 10.4 to 16.5 | 5.6 to 21.3 | 34% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Harry Sharp | INT | 13.3 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jake Lever | BPR | 13.2 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.4 to 21.0 | 35% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 12.5 | 9.6 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 12.4 | 9.5 to 15.4 | 4.8 to 20.0 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 10.5 | 7.8 to 13.3 | 3.4 to 17.7 | 13% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 10.0 | 7.3 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 17.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 9.7 | 7.0 to 12.4 | 2.8 to 16.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | HFFR | 7.5 | 5.1 to 10.0 | 1.3 to 13.8 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |