AFL · ROUND 17 · UTAS STADIUM
Hawthorn v Melbourne
Sat 4 Jul 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 12
HAW to win, 68% chance
HAW 68%32% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 35
MISS Actual margin 35 · 47.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 97 | 82 to 113 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 47% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Will Day | C | 89 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 69% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 88 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 127 | 84% | 68% | 49% | 32% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Josh Ward | R | 85 | 70 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 79% | 63% | 41% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 110 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 85 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 63% | 40% | 26% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Cam Mackenzie | INT | 80 | 65 to 96 | 43 to 118 | 71% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 36 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 75 | 60 to 90 | 37 to 112 | 56% | 40% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 104 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 112 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 32 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 72 | 58 to 88 | 35 to 110 | 55% | 37% | 22% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Harry Morrison | WR | 72 | 57 to 86 | 35 to 109 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 61 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 97 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 98 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 59 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Jack Dalton | INT | 53 | 39 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Matt Hill | FPL | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Bailey Macdonald | HBFR | 51 | 37 to 65 | 17 to 86 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Noah Mraz | HBFL | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 87 |
| Flynn Perez | INT | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Bodie Ryan | FB | 48 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Tom Barrass | CHB | 46 | 32 to 60 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| William McCabe | INT | 44 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Gawn | RK | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 144 | 91% | 84% | 70% | 58% | 41% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 87 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 126 | 82% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 104 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 42% | 27% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 85 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 63% | 41% | 26% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 72% | 56% | 37% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Ed Langdon | R | 79 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 75 | 60 to 90 | 37 to 112 | 56% | 40% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | HBFR | 66 | 51 to 80 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Caleb Windsor | WR | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Harvey Langford | WL | 65 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 17 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 59 | 45 to 73 | 24 to 94 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Jake Lever | BPR | 58 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 58 | 44 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | CHB | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 93 |
| Harry Sharp | INT | 56 | 42 to 70 | 20 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 131 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 46 | 32 to 60 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Matthew Jefferson | HFFR | 43 | 29 to 56 | 10 to 76 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |