AFL · ROUND 17 · UTAS STADIUM
Hawthorn v Melbourne
Sat 4 Jul 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 12
HAW to win, 68% chance
HAW 68%32% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 35
MISS Actual margin 35 · 47.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 3.0 | 2.0 to 4.0 | 0.6 to 5.3 | 85% | 63% | 49% | 31% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 65% | 41% | 22% | 11% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 57% | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 58% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 27% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 36% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Matt Hill | FPL | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Will Day | C | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Dalton | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| William McCabe | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Morrison | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Flynn Perez | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Mraz | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bodie Ryan | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Barrass | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 1.6 | 0.8 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 65% | 35% | 13% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 63% | 33% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | HFFR | 1.2 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 50% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 58% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 58% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 45% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 27% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Sharp | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ed Langdon | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lever | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |