AFL · ROUND 17 · UTAS STADIUM
Hawthorn v Melbourne
Sat 4 Jul 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 12
HAW to win, 68% chance
HAW 68%32% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 35
MISS Actual margin 35 · 47.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 28.3 / inside our 50% range: 27.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 97 / inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Josh Ward | R | 23.1 / inside our 50% range: 25.0 | 0.3 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.2 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 85 / inside our 90% range: 110 |
| Will Day | C | 22.6 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 5.4 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 89 / inside our 90% range: 66 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 21.9 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.5 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 88 / inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Cam Mackenzie | INT | 21.8 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 80 / outside our 90% range: 36 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 21.1 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 84 / inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 20.9 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 83 / inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 19.5 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 85 / inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Harry Morrison | WR | 18.0 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 72 / inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 17.1 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 72 / inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 16.4 / outside our 90% range: 25.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 75 / inside our 90% range: 104 |
| Bailey Macdonald | HBFR | 12.2 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.3 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 51 / inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Bodie Ryan | FB | 12.0 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 48 / inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Flynn Perez | INT | 12.0 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 49 / inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Jack Dalton | INT | 11.5 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.1 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 11.5 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 73 / inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Matt Hill | FPL | 11.3 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 52 / inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 11.2 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 3.0 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.9 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 74 / outside our 90% range: 32 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 10.7 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 59 / inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 9.9 / outside our 90% range: 17.0 | 1.8 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 61 / outside our 90% range: 98 |
| Noah Mraz | HBFL | 9.8 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / outside our 90% range: 12.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 49 / outside our 90% range: 87 |
| Tom Barrass | CHB | 9.2 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 46 / inside our 90% range: 32 |
| William McCabe | INT | 8.5 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 44 / inside our 50% range: 43 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 23.8 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.1 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 85 / inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 22.8 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 5.5 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 82 / inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 22.3 / inside our 50% range: 26.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 5.4 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 86 / inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 21.3 / inside our 50% range: 25.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 87 / inside our 90% range: 104 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 20.9 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 104 / inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Ed Langdon | R | 20.3 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 79 / inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 19.9 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 75 / inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | HBFR | 17.1 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Harvey Langford | WL | 16.7 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 65 / outside our 90% range: 17 |
| Caleb Windsor | WR | 16.6 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 65 / inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 16.5 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 69 / inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 15.5 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.4 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 63 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 14.2 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 59 / inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 13.5 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 55 / inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | CHB | 13.5 / outside our 90% range: 23.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 56 / outside our 90% range: 93 |
| Harry Sharp | INT | 13.3 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.6 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 56 / inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Jake Lever | BPR | 13.2 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.3 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 58 / inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 12.5 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 1.1 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.8 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 58 / inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 12.4 / outside our 90% range: 24.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 50 / inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 10.5 / outside our 90% range: 24.0 | 1.6 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 3.3 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 55 / outside our 90% range: 131 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 10.0 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.7 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 46 / inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 9.7 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Matthew Jefferson | HFFR | 7.5 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 43 / inside our 50% range: 40 |