AFL · ROUND 17 · UTAS STADIUM
Hawthorn v Melbourne
Sat 4 Jul 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 12
HAW to win, 68% chance
HAW 68%32% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 35
MISS Actual margin 35 · 47.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Day | C | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.3 | 80% | 68% | 56% | 43% | 30% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | INT | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 67% | 49% | 33% | 23% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 4.2 | 2.7 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 66% | 51% | 34% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 58% | 39% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 52% | 33% | 18% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 52% | 33% | 18% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 42% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Morrison | WR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 42% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 42% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Dalton | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 33% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Flynn Perez | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 36% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | HBFR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matt Hill | FPL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| William McCabe | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Noah Mraz | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bodie Ryan | FB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 19% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 19% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Barrass | CHB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | RR | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.6 to 9.5 | 81% | 69% | 56% | 45% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 5.4 | 3.7 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.4 | 80% | 68% | 56% | 43% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 70% | 56% | 36% | 25% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 64% | 47% | 32% | 20% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | WR | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 52% | 33% | 18% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 42% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Sharp | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 36% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 36% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ed Langdon | R | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | CHB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | HBFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 19% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Daniel Turner | FB | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Lever | BPR | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |